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银行行业：2019年盈利增速预计维持平稳，维持“跑赢大市”评级
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我们预计中国银行业总贷款和总资产余额的同比增速2019年分别为13.3%和9.9%。由于我们预测中国流动性环境将中性偏松，我们预计2019年银行的净息差将维持稳定，达2.16%左右。我们预计银行业净手续费收入在2019年温和增长。在预期资产质量维持稳定的背景下，银行拨备计提压力预计不会提升。考虑到以上所有因素，我们预计银行业2018年和2019年净利润同比增速分别为6.0%和6.2%。
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银行行业：2019年盈利增速预计维持平稳，维持“跑赢大市”评级 We expect YoY growth of the Chinese banking sector's balance of total loans and total assets to be 13.3% and 9.9% in 2019， respectively. As we project that China's liquidity conditions will be neutral and slightly loose， we expect NIM of the banking sector to remain relatively stable， reaching around 2.16% in 2019. We project the banking sector's net fee income to grow at a moderate pace in 2019. As we project asset quality to remain stable， pressure of provisioning for banks is expected not to rise. All things considered， we expect that YoY growth of the banking sector's net profit in 2018 and 2019 will be 6.0% and 6.2%， respectively. As at 31 December 2018， the 2019 weighted average PER and PBR of mainland banks under our coverage stood at 5.2x and 0.7x， respectively. The current valuations are still low in our view. In 2019， we expect the following factors to support bank valuations： 1） we expect China's economy to grow steadily and economic structure to be optimized further； 2） we think China's economic risks will decrease further given the government's deleveraging and the stringent regulation； 3） the negative impact of stringent financial regulation on bank valuations is expected to mitigate. 【更多详情，请下载：银行行业：2019年盈利增速预计维持平稳，维持“跑赢大市”评级】
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